Monday, July 14, 2008

Williams Companies Inc Stock Analysis

Story Slide:
Natural gas contracts quoted on the NYMEX are for delivery at Henry Hub in Louisiana and a nexus of 16 intra- and interstate natural gas pipelines deliver NGL to the US East Coast, Gulf Coast and Midwest. NGL accounts for 30% of the energy consumption of US and is mostly used for producing electricity. The fastest growing supply of NGL in the US is from the Rocky Mountains and the three key basins in the Rockies, Green River, Piceance and Powder River are expected to grow production by 22%, 56% and 11% respectively between 2007 to 2011. However, upto May 2008, there wasn’t enough pipeline capacity to deliver gas from these regions to Henry Hub or to the major consumers in the US East Coast and Midwest regions. Hence, the Rockies gas traded at a discount of $5-$7 minus the NYMEX contract in 2007. In May 2008, Kinder Morgan completed a 713 mile NGL pipeline connecting the Rockies to Audrain County, Mo. where it interconnects with Kinder Morgan Interstate Gas Transmission system. This has reduced the Rockies gas discount to about $2 minus the NYMEX contract. Furthermore, this pipeline is expected to reach the East Coast by June 2009 which is when the discount to NYMEX NGL contract will be eliminated completely. Williams’ 81% of proven and 93% of possible NGL reserves are in the Rockies and could be a major reason why Williams has not hedged about 50% of its 2008-09 production.

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