Sunday, May 4, 2008

Philip Morris International Stock Pitch


cris said...

Good stuff Ketul,

are you long the stock personally?

any good option ideas for this stock?

Cris long PM

Ketul S said...

Hi Cris, I personally don't have a position in this stock but my company's equity fund is long on this stock.

Best Regards,

pm said...

I agree good stuff Ketul!

Is there a chance you can provide your viewers the % that we can earn vis a vis a worse, good, best case scenarios?

Would really, really appreciate it.

Ketul S said...

The chart posted on the blog shows the best, good and worse case scenarios as you increase the sales growth.

Fas said...

just wondering what your stance was on with PM and if it has changed.....there has been alot of publicity about bill gates and other millionaires trying to combat tabacco industry in you think that will hinder future sales in China?

Ketul S said...

Hi Fas, first, my comments that follow are _not_ for or against smoking and are to be considered only in the context of PM's stock valuation.

Currently, PM doesn't have materially significant revenue from China, albeit, it does have significant revenues from other emerging Asian nations. So, the current valuation mentioned above doesn't account for any revenue from China. Moreover, even in other Asian nations, we only expect existing smokers to upgrade to Marlboro or other PM premium brands from local brands and we don't factor in a growth in the smoking population in general for our revenue forecast.

In the long term, tobacco has been consumed for centuries in some form. Smokeless cigarettes is another growing segment for tobacco products and PM is best positioned to take advantage of these emerging tobacco segments.

Ketul S